Friday, September 16, 2011

Mayweather-Ortiz: Breakdown and Prediction


source: Carlos Cinco | FightcardBoxing.net

This Saturday night, September 17, 2011, one of the biggest attractions in the history of the sport of Boxing makes his return to the ring. Undefeated Floyd “Money” Mayweather hard charges against young lion “Vicious” Victor Ortiz. The bout is scheduled for 12 rounds and will be fought for Ortiz’s WBC Welterweight title. FightCardBoxing provides you an in-depth look and prediction on what will happen come fight night.

Not many people give Victor Ortiz a chance in this one. Though he is the younger and fresher of the two, he is also the one with the least amount of experience. On paper, it looks like a complete mismatch. For Ortiz to pull off the upset, he has to combine what went well for Ricky Hatton, Dela Hoya and Castillo all into one night and fight a perfect fight against the man they call ‘The Pretty Boy’.

Keys to Victory: Victor Ortiz

Victor needs to employ a strong, authorative jab – something Floyd Mayweather will have to be weary of. He needs to avoid fighting from the outside and trying to box Floyd. Ortiz needs to tuck his chin and bully his way forward to try and manhandle Mayweather into the ropes. Dirty boxing will be key here, he has to overpower his slicker opponent. Once he gains inside position, he has to avoid the clinch at all costs. It is of utmost importance for Victor Ortiz to go to the body early and try to do damage by slowing down Mayweather with a vicious body attack. Perhaps the most important thing for Victor Ortiz however, is to start as early as possible. He can’t allow Mayweather to take the early rounds, every point counts and he can’t give any rounds away. If things go as planned, Ortiz can outwork his opponent and may find Mayweather ripe for the picking in the championship rounds – the knockout may even present itself. Nevertheless, it will be a long night for the underdog.


Keys to Victory: Floyd Mayweather

Regardless of what he himself has been saying, Floyd Mayweather should avoid turning this into a fight in hopes of somewhere along the way stopping Victor Ortiz. Mayweather should stick to what he does best and that is to box his opponent to a smart and lopsided unanimous decision. Mayweather needs remind us of how great his defense really is by boxing from the outside and keeping the fight at the center of the ring. If Ortiz will try to rush him, which everyone expects he will, Mayweather must avoid being pinned on the ropes at all costs. And when the going gets tough, he has to clinch Ortiz to stop the onslaught. If Floyd sticks to what he knows, slips and defends against his opponent’s aggression, he might be able to take Ortiz’s fighting spirit away by the middle rounds and cruise to an easy decision.

THE PREDICTION:

The only way Victor Ortiz can win this fight is by landing a punch that will buzz Mayweather and do some real damage. Once this happens, he needs to jump on Mayweather and send him home early. Aside from that, there really is no other way. I’ll tell you what WON’T happen though, and that’s Victor Ortiz winning more rounds than Mayweather should it reach the final bell. It will take an absolute miracle for Victor Ortiz to win by decision, so rule out that scenario.

I don’t believe Ortiz will have the power and effectiveness to knockout Mayweather either. Mayweather has seen his share of heavy punchers and has handled all of them very well. We sometimes forget that although Mayweather has been buzzed by the likes of Shane Mosley, Zab Judah and Jose Luis Castillo, that he has always recovered and adjusted exceptionally well. If Ortiz couldn’t knockout a much more limited Andre Berto after sending him to the mat numerous times, I don’t see how he will be able to knockout one of the greatest defensive masters of our era.

Expect Mayweather to size up Ortiz and solve the puzzle early in the fight. “Money” will waltz his way into a lopsided Unanimous Decision, claim Ortiz’s WBC Welterweight strap and once again tell the world in the post fight that he will take on all comers should they be willing to “take the test”.

Larry Merchant will then walk up to him, break the ice by asking him something about Victor Ortiz and how he was able to handle him quite easily and then, quickly shift focus to a possible showdown with Manny Pacquiao. Mayweather will say the same thing he’s been saying all along, a lot of blabber about Olympic style drug testing and how he “never accused nothing about nobody” and that if “you say you’re the best then take the test” and how he just wants “an even playing field”. Same old, same old.

There is NO way Victor Ortiz is winning this fight. Floyd Mayweather wins by decision, as always, and goes on to collect his multi-million dollar payday.

Mayweather by Unanimous Decision over 12 rounds.